000
FXUS61 KLWX 202000
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SCATTERED CU DECK DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LRG HIPRES HANGING OUT ACRS THE NE/GRTLKS RGN SAT NGT-SUN. DIFF THIS
CYCLE IS THE COMBO OF SFC HIGH AND H5 RDGG...MAKING IT HARDER TO
DISLODGE. THRFR..GDNC THIS CYCLE SLOER THAN PRVS CYCLES. GFS SEEMS
TO BE QUICKER...BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK...OWING TO S/WV PHASING. GGEM/NAM IN CONCERT...SUGGESTING
PCPN WL BE CENTERED ON SUN NGT-MON. A WK LOW WL THEN EMERGE OFF MID
ATLC CST MON NGT.  WL MAKE APPRO CHGS TO GRIDS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT THERE/S NO COLD AIR ARND. AFTR MAKING APPRO MOS TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS /NEGLECTING THE COOLER MAXT OF WET GFS AND SIDING WARMER
SUN NGT AS CLDS ADVECT NWD/...MAXT WL BE NEAR NRML BUT MIN-T WARMER
THAN NRML.

SHUD GET A RESPITE TUE BEFORE ANTHR STORM AFFECTS CWFA IN THE
WED-THU TIMEFRAME. WL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. ATTM...
THE WARM TREND CONTS AS A CUTOFF H5 LOW DVLPS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED CU DECK AROUND 3KFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS.

VFR THRU SUN. FLGT RESTRICTION DUE TO LOPRES SUN NGT-MON NGT.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE LOWER BAY A TONIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BRINGING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS.

NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU THE WKND. LOPRES AFFECTING WATERS MON. WNDS MAY
PICK UP IN ADVC OF LOW...W/ A ENELY FETCH.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ530534-537543.

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS