000
FXUS61 KLWX 070852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RDG CURRENTLY OVHD...WITH TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BELOW FRZG...XCPT
FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ALONG CHESAPEAKE. PATCHY OF CI STREAMING
INTO WRN ZONES...WHICH SHUD PASS THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.

HIPRES SLIDES S/E TODAY...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW. 850MB WAA
PERSISTS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR
MAXIMA...WENT ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AMPLE AFTN SUN SHUD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN U50S/L60S E OF BLUE RIDGE...60S WRN AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW SENDS WEAK CDFNT THRU LATE SAT NGT. INCRD
CLOUDS...SPCLY NRN ZONES...AND WDSHFT TO WNW ONLY EFFECTS OF FROPA
ON MID ATLC. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...MINIMA XPCD TO BE 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT MRNG.

HIPRES AT THE SFC AND UPR LEVELS BUILDS ON SUN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS RISE ABOVE AVERAGE. USED A MAV/MET BLEND
TO OBTAIN MAXIMA IN M/U60S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SANDWICHED IN TUE NIGHT. FROM SUN 12Z TO TUE 12Z...A POSITIVE H85
TEMP ANOMALY OF 1SD WHICH TRANSLATES THIS TIME OF YEAR TO 12C AT
H85 WILL GIVE OUR REGION A COUPLE OF PLEASANT INDIAN SUMMER DAYS ON
MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MAYBE LOWER 70S AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON LATE TUE AFT OR ERLY EVENING...WITH
A DIGGING H5 TROF.  THE GEFS WASHES OUT THE PCPN...WITH ONLY A
COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING ANY PCPN ON TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL
LEAVE IN THE 20 POP BUT ANTICIPATE ATTM LITTLE IF ANY PCPN. WINDS
SHOULD BE GUSTY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
DRYNESS IN FUEL MOISTURE MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON WED.

HIGH PRES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR THU AND FRI.

GEFS HAS A PCPN SYSTEM MOVING INTO REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT CI AOA 20KFT WILL OVERSPREAD AIRPORTS THIS MRNG...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. SLY WINDS
5-10 MPH THIS AFTN BECOME WLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT AS CDFNT PASSES
THRU. LGT WLY WINDS XPCD SUN.

LONG TERM NOT OF CONCERN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THOUGHOUT PERIOD.  POTL
FOR TURB TUE NIGHT ACROSS REGN WITH UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOC WITH
DIGGING TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE US.

.MARINE...
WINDS GRDLY BCMG MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG. AS
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT INCRS THIS AFTN...925 MB WINDS 30
KTS...MIXING AND CHANNELING SHUD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED 15 KT
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 20 KTS. SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTN FOR MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. BY SUNSET
MIXING SUBSIDES...AND WINDS SHUD RETURN BELOW SCA SPEEDS. WINDS
BECOME WLY ERY SUN AS CDFNT PASSES OVER WATERS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SCA LEVELS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED AS MODELS
SHOW STRONG LLVL JET AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND COLD FRONT.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ006-007-011-
     013-014-016018.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530534-537543.

SYNOPSIS...SBK/JEL
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JEL
AVIATION...SBK/JEL
MARINE...SBK/JEL